The following editorial is from “Phil’s Blog”, a monthly blog from Resident Report contributor Phil Montalvo. You can receive his blog by emailing him at phil.montalvo@gmail.com. This week Phil preforms a deep-dive into the 2022 midterms.
THE WAY FORWARD
The body is still lukewarm but the autopsy has begun nonetheless – as well it should. It is time for the GOP to take a hard look at itself and figure out in which direction it needs to go to win future elections.
Introspection is a good thing because, as the American Philosopher George Santayana wisely admonished, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Introspection, however, needs to be objective and based on reality.
After three consecutive election cycles of less than stellar performance, the GOP needs to wake up and smell the coffee. The get-along-go-along GOP of yesteryear needs to be buried – much like was done in 2016 with Trump’s America First movement.
Now is the time to, once again, recalibrate.
To be clear, in 2022, the GOP’s taking over control of the House of Representatives WAS A BIG DEAL. However, we cannot be pollyannaish about it. The FACT remains that the GOP did underperform.
It has been suggested by some that two of the principal reasons why the GOP was stymied by the Democrats in key 2022 races were the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, and the so-called “Trump factor.”
Perhaps, but I suggest that there is a more basic reason for the Democrats over performance. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats had the tools with which to flood the zone, and the right demographic of voters to motivate – regardless of what may have motivated them.
The “motivation” theory, while an interesting topic for discussion at inside-the-Washington-beltway cocktail parties, will have little, if any, relevance to what will happen in 2024.
Roe will be a historical footnote by then, and Trump’s 2022 won-loss “scorecard” of endorsed candidates will be as well.
As the great Rush Limbaugh would say if he were alive today, the events that will determine the outcome of the 2024 elections have not yet occurred, nor unfolded. It is way too early to start reading 2024 tea leaves.
What the GOP does need to do sooner than later is long-term planning and developing a winning strategy.
So, let’s chill for the time being and let the political process run its course between now and 2024. Let’s CONCENTRATE ON THE BRIGHT FUTURE THAT LIES BEFORE OUR EYES.
The GOP needs to identify and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.
THE GOP VOTER “BASE” AND THE LATINO VOTERS
The reality is that the traditional Republican “base” is dwindling. About 54% of that base is found in the “White non-Latino” demographic group, and the White demographic group has been in decline for decades.
2020 Census data shows that 57.8% of the population identify as “White non-Latino, as opposed to 63.7% in 2010, and 69.1% in 2000 – that’s an 11.3% decline in 20 years.
On the other hand, it is estimated that by 2045, fewer than 50% of the population will be non-Hispanic White.
Part of the reason for this decline is that the White population is aging. A 2018 Pew Research study found that the median age of non-Hispanic White adults is 44 – the oldest of any racial or ethnic group.
By contrast, the median age of the Latino population is 30.
Not only are Latino voters much younger than White non-Latino voters, they are also voting in greater numbers than in the past. The same Pew Research study found that, for the first time, more than 50% of eligible Latino voters reported voting in the 2020 election – 53.7% to be exact.
Here’s the opportunity for the GOP.
As Latinos mature in our society, they are gravitating more and more toward the Republican Party. That’s because of the freedom, the values, and the opportunity to prosper that the GOP offers. Those attributes are shared by the majority of Latinos as well.
A 2020 Pew Research study concluded:
The surge in both registration and voting rates …. suggest that Latinos are poised to exert political influence in the U.S. commensurate with their share of the population. The midterm elections and the presidential election of 2024 may confirm that the often-called ‘sleeping giant’ of U.S. electoral politics is ready to emerge in full force.
This trend, however, has not been lost on those on the Left, who are in panic mode. Read below.
On November 17, 2022, Leftist NBC published an opinion piece on its website written by Keith Humphreys which said:
Most Latinos voted for Democrats in last week’s elections. But Republican support among Hispanic voters has grown by 10 points since 2018, continuing a dozen-year trend of America’s largest ethnic minority group drifting in a more politically conservative direction.
Though this shift has engendered much Democratic finger-pointing about potentially off-putting messaging (e.g., promotion of the term “Latinex”) and lack of outreach, the primary cause may be much simpler: namely, the rapidly improving socio-economic position of Latinos in America.
The overall arc of progress suggests that more Hispanics are going to be voting conservative in the future because they feel America is working out well for them.
Clearly, the GOP has an opportunity to capitalize on this ongoing trend … which bodes well for the future of the Republican party – if they capitalize on it.
THE YOUTH VOTE
As mentioned before, the White base constituency of the Republican Party continues to dwindle due to aging. However, besides the Latino voting bloc, where Republicans are gaining ground, one of the biggest voting blocs Republicans must pursue in earnest is the youth voters.
Traditionally, Republicans have had a tendency to ignore young voters operating under the assumption that young people are inherently too liberal and not very politically engaged.
While it may have been true at one time, the reality is that the youth vote is a growing factor in today’s elections. This is especially true among young minority voters.
The challenge for Republicans is that the youth vote overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, and they are more politically engaged than ever. The Hill online publication recently found that:
Nearly 30 percent of young adults between the ages 18 and 29 are estimated to have voted in the 2022 midterm elections, marking the second-highest youth turnout in three decades.
The youth turnout proved to be consequential in key 2022 midterm elections in places like the Pennsylvania Senate race where 70 percent of voters between the ages 18 and 29 cast their ballots for John Fetterman.
Think about it. In close elections, the GOP did not have that edge.
Nationally, the youth vote went overwhelmingly for the democrats in the 2022 midterms, and as was the case in 2020 as well.
The Edison Research National Election Pool exit poll found that 63% of young voters opted for democrats in the House of Representatives races, while 35% voted for Republicans.
How to reverse that trend?
It is not a well-known fact that for decades conservatives have engaged in the recruitment, education, and training of thousands of young people. This has now caught the attention of the Left, who have “owned” the youth vote since the mid-1960s and see it slipping away.
In a recent piece written for the far-left magazine, The Nation, author Julian Epp recognized the impact that conservative outreach organizations are having on the youth vote, and sounded the alarm.
Epp alludes to how in 1979, Morton Blackwell – a Barry Goldwater campaign alumnus – created the Leadership Institute, a nonprofit that has offered workshops, seminars, and employment placement services for over four decades, funneling right-wing students from campus groups into a conservative machine.
He wrote:
Today, alumni of the Leadership Institute include Mike Pence, Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe, Dan Crenshaw, and [others]. The Institute claims that Blackwell has likely “trained more political activists than any other conservative”—more than 200,000—with over 1,700 conservative clubs and newspapers on campuses nationwide.
But Blackwell is not alone. Turning Point USA, founded in 2012 by millennial Charlie Kirk, aims to “identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote freedom” with donations from the Bradley Foundation and various Koch-affiliated groups. According to The Guardian, TPUSA’s revenue increased from around $4 million in 2016 to almost $40 million in 2020.
Meanwhile, beginning in 2005, the libertarian Koch brothers Charles and David spent almost half a billion dollars on university and higher education nonprofit grants in an effort to push free-market ideas and integrate more students into their network.
And it’s all paying off. The youth vote IS trending in the RIGHT direction. Here’s the proof.
In 2022, Pennsylvania Democrats lost 5% of the youth vote, down from 59% to 54% compared to 2018, and the Republicans gained 4%, up to 43% from 39%.
In 2022, in Georgia, Democrats lost 8% of the youth vote, down from 62% to 54%, and the GOP gained 8%, up from 35% to 43%, compared to 2018.
In 2022, in Arizona, the Democrats lost five points (57% down from 62%) since 2018, and the GOP gained five points (38% up from 33%).
The silver lining is there, folks, staring the GOP in the face …